Hurricane Risk: Present and Future
Kerry Emanuel
MIT
Abstract:
Assessing
hurricane risk is vital for urban planning and for many different
business sectors, but the historical record is in general too short to
make reliable risk assessments from it alone. I will describe a new
technique that combines a statistical method for generating very large
numbers of synthetic hurricane tracks with a deterministic, coupled
air-sea model for determining the evolution of the storm wind field
along each such track.