Modeling Flood Risk for the Insurance
Industry
Dag
Lohmann
Risk Management
Solutions Ltd
Abstract:
Recent major
flood losses raised the awareness of flood risk worldwide
and flood insurance penetration has been anticipated to grow during the
upcoming years. In order to serve the growing needs of insurers and
reinsurers to adequately assess and price their flood risk in Europe,
Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has decided to take the challenge of
building a Europe-wide flood model over the next few years. This is
done
in three major steps. The first step includes building a Pan-European
Rainfall event set using a Monte Carlo analogue technique that allows
us
to correlate flow, and hence flooding, within different rivers in
Europe
at both high and low return periods under current climate conditions.
The second step includes building a high resolution (25 meter) flood /
hydrology model for river-flood as well as off-floodplain flooding
forced by rain derived using the stochastic pan-European rainfall event
set. This allows consistent event correlation between models for
different areas of Europe. Coupled to these hazard models are models
that define the relationship between hazard and average flood damage,
as
expressed by a modelled mean damage ratio and a coefficient of
variation. A financial module then calculates insured losses for
various
financial perspectives. I will present the various techniques used in
the modeling (e.g. calibration, validation, sampling, etc.) as well as
the data sets that were used as forcing variables, boundary conditions
and model parameters, among them GSWP/ISLSCP, ERA40, and various other
data sets from NASA and NOAA.