The forecast of extreme mesoscale events have an increased interest
of the general public. Mesoscale models have problems to deal with such
events because their predictability is very low even in the
short-range. In such environment, probabilistic forecast can help to
address the issue. Multi-model ensemble prediction systems are showing
to be very useful to add some probabilistic value to the mesoscale
deterministic models. At INM (the Spanish Meteorological Service) we’re
setting up a multi-model ensemble prediction system focused on weather
forecast up to 72 hours. The presentation will show the status of the
system and results of the operational verification from January to June
2006. INM has the intention to declare the system fully operational at
the beginning of 2007.