More than 75% of U.S. population lives within 100 miles of
coastline. The coastal population and infrastructures are increasingly
subjected to various coastal hazards (e.g., severe wind, storm surge,
coastal inundation, beach erosion, collapse of coastal highway and
bridges, and harmful algal bloom, etc.) during hurricanes and
extratropical storms. To mitigate the damage caused by these coastal
hazards, reliable and timely forecasts of the coastal hazards are
needed. This talk presents some work in progress towards the
development of an interoperable and integrated regional coastal hazard
forecasting system with special focus on the Gulf of Mexico region and
the U.S. East Coast. The requirements of such a forecasting system is
first presented, followed by a description of the current status of the
forecasting system which is based on the integration of a high
resolution coastal surge model (CH3D and UnCH3D) and a coastal wave
model (SWAN), which are coupled to a basin scale surge model (ADCIRC
and UnCH3D) and a basin scale wave model (WaveWatch-III). These models
are driven by various forecast wind fields (NAM, GFDL, WNA) provided by
NOAA. Examples will be provided to illustrate the performance and
scientific robustness of the forecasting system, based on lessons
learned during the past three hurricane seasons. Use of grid computing
and web service to enable end-to-end regional coastal hazard
forecasting will be presented. Several research topics (e.g., ensemble
forecasting, hurricane-land interaction, hurricane intensity
prediction, improved basin scale model, etc.) aimed to improve the
performance, accuracy, and usefulness of the forecasting system will
then be discussed.