Optimizing Global Hawk
flight tracks relative to meteorological features and supplemental
observations to maximize TC model intensity and structure forecast
improvements
Peter Black
Cherokee Nation Technologies, LLC 18 July, Noon in 2155
Abstract:
Flight tracks from several Global Hawk flights from 2012-2016 in three
field programs will be reviewed relative to feature identification and
timing: 1) HS3, 2) SHOUT Hurricane and 3) SHOUT El Niņo Rapid Response.
This evaluation is being driven by a shift in Global Hawk use from a
research platform to an operational platform. Most flights used one of
three standard pattern types: 1) Racetrack, 2) Alpha (or ‘Figure 4’)
and 3) Butterfly, the latter two being flown relative to the moving
storm center. A review of recent studies involving use of Global Hawk
flight data in TC prediction models suggest that improvements in
feature structural definition and model impact can be anticipated based
upon pattern re-alignment relative to: 1) supporting aircraft and
satellite data coverage, 2) feature orientation, 3) feature motion, 4)
environmental wind shear as well as phasing relative to: i) anticipated
intensity change times, ii) feature diurnal variation and iii) model
Data Assimilation time/ duration. The importance of these
considerations vs issues such as observational focus on predicted
uncertainty regions in various ensemble model guidance will be briefly
commented upon.